Smil Vaclav. How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going

Viking, 2022. — 336 p. — ISBN 978-0593297063, 0593297067.We have never had so much information at our fingertips and yet most of us don't know how the world really works. This book explains seven of the most fundamental realities governing our survival and prosperity. From energy and food production, through our material world and its globalization, to risks, our environment and its future, How the World Really Works offers a much-needed reality check - because before we can tackle problems effectively, we must understand the facts.In this ambitious and thought-provoking book we see, for example, that globalization isn't inevitable - the perils of allowing 70 per cent of the world's rubber gloves to be made in just one factory became glaringly obvious in 2020 - and that our societies have been steadily increasing their dependence on fossil fuels, making their complete and rapid elimination unlikely. For example, each greenhouse-grown supermarket-bought tomato requires the equivalent of five tablespoons of diesel oil for its production; and we still lack any commercially viable ways of making steel, ammonia, cement or plastics on the scale required globally without fossil fuels.
Vaclav Smil is neither a pessimist nor an optimist, he is a scientist; he is the world-leading expert on energy and an astonishing polymath. This is his magnum opus and a continuation of his quest to make facts matter. Drawing on the latest science, including his own fascinating research, and tackling sources of misinformation head on - from Yuval Noah Harari to Noam Chomsky - ultimately Smil answers the most profound question of our age: are we irrevocably doomed or is a brighter utopia ahead? Compelling, data-rich and revisionist, this wonderfully broad, interdisciplinary masterpiece finds faults with both extremes. Looking at the world through this quantitative lens reveals hidden truths that change the way we see our past, present and uncertain future.Introduction: Why Do We Need This Book?
Understanding Energy: Fuels and Electricity.
Fundamental shifts.
Modern energy uses.
What is energy?
Crude oil’s rise and relative retreat.
The many advantages of electricity.
Before you flip a switch.
Decarbonization: pace and scale.
Understanding Food Production: Eating Fossil Fuels.
Three valleys, two centuries apart.
What goes in.
The energy costs of bread, chicken, and tomatoes.
Diesel oil behind seafood.
Fuel and food.
Can we go back?
Doing with less—and doing without.
Understanding Our Material World: The Four Pillars of Modern Civilization.
Ammonia: the gas that feeds the world.
Plastics: diverse, useful, troublesome.
Steel: ubiquitous and recyclable.
Concrete: a world created by cement.
Material outlook: old and new inputs.
Understanding Globalization: Engines, Microchips, and Beyond.
Globalization’s distant origins.
Wind-driven globalization.
Steam engines and telegraph.
The first diesel engines, flight, and radio.
Large diesels, turbines, containers, and microchips.
Enter China, Russia, India.
Globalization’s multiples.
The long reach of Moore’s law.
Inevitability, setbacks, and overreach.
Understanding Risks: From Viruses to Diets to Solar Flares.
Eating as in Kyoto—or as in Barcelona.
Risk perceptions and tolerances.
Quantifying the risks of everyday life.
Voluntary and involuntary risks.
Natural hazards: less risky than they look on TV.
Ending our civilization.
Some lasting attitudes.
Understanding the Environment: The Only Biosphere We Have.
Oxygen is in no danger.
Will we have enough water and food?
Why the Earth is not permanently frozen.
Who discovered global warming?
Oxygen, water, and food in a warmer world.
Uncertainties, promises, and realities.
Wishful thinking.
Models, doubts, and realities.
Understanding the Future: Between Apocalypse and Singularity.
Failed predictions.
Inertia, scale, and mass.
Ignorance, persistence, and humility.
Unprecedented commitments, delayed rewards.
Appendix: Understanding Numbers.
References and Notes.
Acknowledgments.
Index.
About the Author.